Hydrogen holds a prominent role as a renewable energy carrier of the future due to its high gravimetric energy density. However, the most urgent technological challenge, especially concerning mobile applications in fuel cell vehicles, is the development of appropriate hydrogen storage options. In this context, metal hydrides are a promising candidate, especially concerning development potential and storage density. Our research outlines the so far neglected influence of raw material prices on the decision, which metal hydride is to date the most promising option to pursue. Using scenario analysis, we picture the impact of possible price developments depending on the diffusion speed of fuel cell technologies into the automotive market, further applications of the corresponding raw materials and other external influence factors. The main practical implication of our approach consists of enhancing the understanding of constantly changing market conditions, in our case scarcity, and prices of the needed raw materials and their impact on technology assessment in an early stage of the innovation process. In a superior context, our results in terms of metal hydrides can be adapted to further technologies and thus contribute to design a general model illustrating the influence of raw material prices on the development of energy technologies.