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11R0232
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"Smart Transition Management to Smarten
Energy Systems in a Deeply Uncertain World"
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Erik Pruyt * , Delft University of Technology, Netherlands
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* = Corresponding author
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Enormous future energy technology/system investments are needed to replace old technologies, and expand/prepare systems for future needs. Moreover, smarter technologies/systems are needed, but in this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, smarter energy policy/decision-making is certainly needed too. After all, current energy policy/decision-making still mainly ignores complexity and uncertainty. This paper illustrates two model-based approaches for supporting policy/decision-making for complex and uncertain issues. First, Serious Model-Based Gaming and Bounce-Casting allows policy/decision-makers to experience dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty, and helps them feel the need for embracing them in policy/decision-making. Before having experienced different plausible futures, almost all high-level energy grid managers and highly-educated students that played our energy network investment or energy technology investment games applied inappropriate strategies, and failed, which prepared them for thinking outside their old/reactive/predictive modes while bounce-casting. Second, Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis allows exploring and analyzing millions of plausible (uncertain) dynamic system behaviors and testing the robustness of policies/strategies/decisions. This second approach is illustrated using corresponding energy network and energy technology investment models. Using both approaches may be even more useful: most subjects only acknowledged the need to take uncertainty and dynamic complexity seriously into account after having participated in an experience-oriented session.
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